ReasonedResponse.com

I don't much care for what passes as research these days, particularly when it relates to the Internet.  So much of it is pure hooey, sloppily manufactured in order to give credence to some political point of view -- as when the net neutrality crowd claims that consumers don't support tiered pricing, or when a report claims that there are hundreds of thousands of predators online at any given time.  The first time someone asks to see the source data that documents this nonsense, it collapses.

Other research is simply tail chasing.  That is, the survey asks people for their opinion rather than measuring fact.  There is a lot of that online today, particularly when we survey people about whether broadband is being deployed quickly enough.  One has to wonder why the answer would be the subjective opinion of someone who may or may not know anything about the subject, when we can simply apply quantitative measures.

Whatever the reasons, nearly all of the research that makes headlines is junk.  I know this because my many years of post-graduate work in education and business have included a staggering number of classes in research and statistical analysis.  But it's also not just my opinion -- it has been noted extensively by publications that include the Wall Street Journal and scientific journals.  The problem is that surveys and studies are pushed out into the blogosphere or front pages as fact -- with no peer review, no evaluation of the design of the study, and no application of statistical analysis to the results.

But sometimes there is also a glimmer of a fact that bears consideration and further research.

Last week, Burst Media reported a survey of more than 13,000 web users 18 years and older about their views on the availability of age focused online content, website design, and targeted online advertising.

The conclusion: a majority of Internet users 45 years and older believe online content is focused on younger age segments and does not meet their needs.  In fact, within this age segment only one in three (35.4%) believe online content is focused on people their own age. Few respondents 55 years and older say Internet content is primarily focused on people their age.

I do not know how good the Burst Media data is -- there is no source data provided, so it could simply be more pablum.  But I am inclined to think it may have a glimmer of fact in it, because it is consistent with data collected over the past decade by the Pew Internet and American Life project that shows as many as one-fourth of Americans avoid using the Internet because it is not relevant to their lives.  A 2007 study by Pew's John Horrigan found only about 8 percent of the population avidly uses technology in their lives, and half use it only occasionally.

Roughly one-third of the population is over the age of 45, and the median age is 36.9 years.  That doesn't bode well for an industry obsessed with youth, social networks, music downloading, television over the Internet and ads focused on young people -- particularly since the percentage of older Americans is growing.

This is awkward.  We've spent so many years assuming that the "digital divide" was the result of some greedy and nefarious plotting by network operators that we never considered that the real villain could be an Internet that is boring and irrelevant to a major chunk of the population.  If this is true, the majority of politicians and pundits working on broadband issues may have spent the better part of a decade chasing myths.  And a majority of leading Internet companies are following strategies that may lead them straight to the poorhouse.

Of course, none of this may hold up under real scientific scrutiny.  But before we rush off to craft a national broadband policy, as so many are demanding that we do without delay, we ought to find out.  Because the Internet is so closely tied to our national economy and culture that we can't afford to rush off half-cocked.  For the sake of our seniors, our minority members, and consumers as a whole, we need more research before we leap to conclusions.

If the research holds true, we'll need to do some serious re-tooling of the economic model of the Internet.  Diversify the advertising so that it appeals more to seniors and minorities.  Clean up the sloppy mess that passes for news and information.  Find out what the other half of America wants and needs from its Internet experience, and take steps to provide it to them.  Shore up security so that banking online and health online -- two areas of special interest to those over 45 -- can be done without fear of identity theft or blackmail.

We'll have to stop this incessant bickering over imaginary threats and begin to work on real ones.  We'll have to kick the money-changers out of the Temple, stop pandering to the lowest common denominator, and tell most of the self-styled consumer advocates to take a hike.

At least, that's what this doddering old guy thinks.